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November 20, 2006

Afterwards . . .

Well today is the 20th of November and we're all done with the COPMOP stuff. The safari COP is over and most of us have returned to our respective villages. The conference seems to have been mostly dissatisfying from whatever news i've been able to gather here in Bangalore.
however some good news seems to be found here :
Politics, economics push countries towards emissions controls
but this is actually an Associated Press article so maybe you've seen it already in some daily!
Here's a big HEY!! to all the people who were there at Nairobi. It also seems that Bali is pretty much decided, since most newspeople here have already printed it as the next destination for the COP. I'm gonna keep my fingers crossed! :D(Goofy Grin)
However it seems to me that there should also be sustained effort by all the youth who were there at the previous COPs to try and get going some kind of national movement, however small. Agendas particular to the youth would include the demand for a youth constituency and an international youth conference held before the COP/COPMOP itself.
Cheers to all those who got to rest their tired bodies and souls!
And to sign off - It's Our Time!
(p.s. - this was the motto we adopted at the 2nd Conference of Youth)
peace,
Golam

Article from Canada!

Sorry, this is being quite lazy but i thought i needed to post this here!!


Runaway Climate Change -
A Frightening Lack Of Leadership

By Bill Henderson

20 November, 2006
Countercurrents. org

The scientific consensus, already clear and incontrovertible, is today moving towards the more alarmed end of the spectrum. Many scientists long known for their caution are now saying that warming has reached dire levels, generating feedback loops that will take us perilously close to a point of no return...The question is not whether climate change is happening, but whether, in the face of this emergency, we ourselves can change fast enough. Kofi Annan

This is now my ninth op-ed* on runaway climate change (runaway global warming, runaway global heating) and I've been waiting for some awareness from the world's political and economic leaders of how desperately close we are to possible human extinction. Increasingly probable runaway climate change means human extinction.

I've been waiting for some leadership in confronting the intractable problem of making impossibly radical change in developed and developing countries, TODAY, so that the world fifty years from now is still habitable by man and the flora and fauna we now recognize as nature.

Scientists and journalists have spoken out and written eloquently about feedback loops that will take us perilously close to a point of no return. For example, James Hansen and George Monbiot have sounded the alarm:

"Further global warming of 1 °C defines a critical threshold. Beyond that we will likely see changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we know." James Hansen

"(T)he science is clear. We need not a 20% cut by 2020; not a 60% cut by 2050, but a 90% cut by 2030 (1). Only then do we stand a good chance of keeping carbon concentrations in the atmosphere below 430 parts per million, which means that only then do we stand a good chance of preventing some of the threatened positive feedbacks. If we let it get beyond that point there is nothing we can do. The biosphere takes over as the primary source of carbon. It is out of our hands." George Monbiot

I wrote to educate; I wrote in despair. I wrote trying to get out the alarm, to try and cry out "Emergency". But escaping runaway climate change is a much more 'wicked problem' than first perceived.

I tried to write to make the case that there were these possible feedback loops, these carbon bombs, this presently safely sequestered carbon. I remember Jeremy Rifkin arguing back in the 80s that these feedback loops existed and could come into play if warming from human caused greenhouse gases raised global mean temperature and especially polar region temperatures past a certain point. I don't understand why people in leadership positions are doing nothing - not raising the alarm when severe climate change in the Arctic is already releasing methane from melting permafrost. People like Rifkin had made a logical cause and effect argument and it is coming true.

Then I found out that carbon bombs were just one possible set of positive feedback loops leading to runaway climate change. David Wasdell lists nine active positive feedback loops:

1) Increase in sea temperature decreases CO2 absorption


2) Reduction in planktonic capacity to process CO2 with rising water temperature and reduction in availability of rising nutrient-bearing currents (lowered density of surface water with rising temperature)

3) Decrease in oceanic absorption of CO2 with rising acidity of surface water


4) Acidification of oceanic surface layers reduces optimal conditions for planktonic life and therefore further reduces plankton absorption of CO2


5) Increasing respiration of soil-based bacteria releases more CO2 with rising temperature
6) Rising sea and air temperature generates higher levels of atmospheric water-vapour, itself a powerful GHG

7) Increased temperature generates increased cloud-cover (mixed feedback since clouds reflect sunlight back into space, while also preventing radiation from the ground. The domination of the positive feedback is thought to increase with rising temperature. )

8) Thawing of permafrost (land-based and coastal shallow seas) releases more methane

9) Decreasing snow/ice surface decreases light/energy reflection.

I also wrote to model the impossibility of conceiving of eminent human extinction. There is great difficulty in individuals grasping that their actions today - driving, consuming, flying, etc. - are cumulatively leading to a world where their children or grandchildren will perish, to human dieoff and extinction. You can sort of think it, say it ...but you really can't completely think or communicate the closeness, the 'Big Picture', the horror.

I've used metaphors:

Dad, Mom and the kids are out boating on the reservoir: little Johnny's helping Dad fish (and the fishing is hot); Mom's enjoying a relaxing nap and the twins are playing in the front of the boat. Everybody's having so much fun they aren't really aware that they are drifting towards the dam and the spillway. Even if the fishing is wonderful, reasonable people would make sure that they stayed far away from the point of no return past which they couldn't escape death for the whole family.

but it's not a question of pointing out a danger to reasonable people. TEOTWAWKI

But I keep trying cause of my granddaughter Bella and the billions of people she represents. Lead time, the need to make changes now, TODAY, (the changes we didn't make over the past decades) because of the multi-decade time lags in the global warming process. The need to cut emissions substantially this decade.

There are paths back from the brink. Something like Lester Brown's PLAN B where individual governments at least could formalize the danger as akin to the danger the Allies faced in WW2 and put in place a mobilization of society and the economy so that change of a necessary scale was possible.

We need some such governance innovation so that we can get off the path we are on and ... but China and India, the failure of developed countries to accept their greenhouse gas legacy, the Kyoto failure. And Bush totally corroding and marginalizing emerging global governance with stupid, criminal unilateralism in Iraq - choosing the resource war path for everybody.

Nearly three-quarters of British Columbians (the West Coast of Canada where I live) believe life as we know it will end in another two or three generations unless drastic and immediate action is taken to curb global warming, according to the results of an exclusive Vancouver Sun poll. The cause and effect of runaway climate change may not be completely understood but citizens know enough to fear for their children's future.

But each Canadian continues to consume a huge footprint, emitting greenhouse gases now some 30% above our supposed Kyoto targets. Each Canadian, like each American or Aussie, is trapped in a car culture lifestyle that doesn't allow any real possibility of slimming down personal emissions.

In the Canadian forward to his new book HEAT George Monbiot nails us Canucks and our spineless government while heretically advocating the governmental leadership we need:

"You [Canadians] think of yourselves as a liberal and enlightened people, and my experience seems to confirm that. But you could scarcely do more to destroy the biosphere if you tried."

"When they (the Conservative government) say that Canada cannot reach its Kyoto targets for cutting greenhouse gas emissions, they mean that they do not intend to try. ... [it's] an astonishing instance of political cowardice."

"I am sorry to say that only regulation -- that deeply unfashionable idea -- can quell the destruction wrought by the god we serve, the god of our own appetites."

We desperately need leaders in government and business globally to speak out and demand massive change right now, massive cuts in fossil fuel use and emissions, massive change from our drawdown economy to an economy that grows but not materially, that grows in knowledge and quality, but shrinks in energy use and material throughput.

We need leaders to free us from the present unsustainable economy and motivate and empower us today to make the changes necessary to save us from extinction.
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Well this scares me, and also reminds me of the discussion I had with Agnes about the Siberian Peatbogs. But the only thing left for us is to take action because panic will not achieve much, I guess!

peace (if you can get some!)
Golam

November 17, 2006

Safari COP?

Today is the last day of the COP and we're all pretty nervous. The negotiations happen in offices outside of the public eye as the ministers hash out the final documents that will be released and determine how this COP will be defined. We don't know what will happen but so far there isn't one big positive element that ties everything together. It's likely that the negotiaitions will go all night. So hopefully the papers in a few days will be full of headlines showing success. Maybe a strong commitment to make sure that there is no gap after the 2012 end date of the Kyoto protocol, before the next binding treaty.

We had a pretty rockin side event the other day. We made a big board and filled it up with the flags of all the UN nations here. Since the ministers are here, we tried to get them to move their flags from the area marked äbove 5 degrees of warming to the area maked below 2 degrees. Many did it! Those that didn't, used our display as a positive backdrop for their press interviews.

blog%20photo.jpg

November 15, 2006

It's Getting HOT in here!

Check out these excellent blogs to get even more info on what all the youth gathered here in Nairobi are up to and to find out what the politicians are doing (and NOT doing) on

www.itsgettinghotinhere.org

What the Ministers should be DOING

Hi all, I'd like to share with you this excellent article by Steve, the head of the GP delegation on where we are here in Nairobi and what the ministers should be doing...

Climate politics and climate reality: Closing the Gap

ECO welcome you, Ministers, to Nairobi and to the COP and COP/MOP – you’ve
arrived just in time.

We need you to close the gap between the urgent calls from around the world for
action on climate change, and the level of ambition demonstrated so far here in
Nairobi.

Indeed, there is work to be done. As you know from the avalanche of press
reports on the changing climate and the rising tide of public concern, pressure
for hard action is growing by the day. Since Montreal much has happened, but
even more remains to be done. There is much on your agenda here, but ECO would
like to direct your attention to one key issue which we think is critical to
the success of this COP and COP/MOP, and to the future of efforts to prevent
dangerous interference with the climate system.

MIND THE GAP – WE NEED A MANDATE AT COPMOP 3!

We particularly need you to ensure that this process responds to the increasing
alarm we are hearing from scientists around the world. The gorilla sitting in
the middle of your table that many do not want to acknowledge is the need to
establish a time bound process to negotiate the second commitment period of the
Kyoto Protocol. You need to lay the political ground work amongst your
colleagues here for a COP/MOP3 decision in 2007 on a broad negotiating mandate,
to be concluded by 2008. We all know that this is not formally on the agenda
here in Nairobi, but this is certainly the last COP/MOP where it is possible to
NOT adopt a comprehensive mandate for these negotiations, and still have a
chance of finishing in time so that there is no gap between the first and
second commitment periods. At COP/MOP3, many processes conclude, and should
logically come together to create that mandate. These include: the tropical
deforestation issue, discussions under the UNFCCC Dialogue and the workplan
under the AWG on Annex I commitments.

PLEASE. Make it clear in your speeches and meetings that you understand the
urgency. Call for a mandate to be agreed at COPMOP3.

The main outstanding issue here relevant to this is a decision on the first
review under Article 9 of the Kyoto Protocol, which is required to be done at
this COP/MOP. Part of the text we have seen is, let us be frank, a shame on
this process. A perfunctory first review, with virtually no preparation, does
no credit to anyone and belittles the seriousness of this issue. Leaving this
aside, the current chairman’s text, which calls for the second review be done
at COP/MOP4 in 2008, with no real preparatory work bodes ill for the adoption
of a Mandate in 2007 at COP/MOP3. Will not the 2008 time line be used as an
excuse not to adopt a Mandate at COP/MOP3? Or is this the real purpose of such
a timetable? Such a timeframe would in our view foreclose any chance of
completing the Kyoto Second Commitment period negotiations so that commitment
periods can be contiguous. If that does not happen you can kiss the carbon
markets goodbye. Ministers, you need to fix this.


At the first Climate COP in Africa, the epicenter of vulnerability to human
induced climate change, there was and is a special need to send a signal that
the world is getting serious about dealing with the escalating costs of
adaptation. Damages from climate change are going to be large, particularly in
Africa, even if we are successful in limiting warming below 2oC increase in
comparison to pre-industrial levels. While there have been some small steps
forward here in addressing this issue, the gap between that and what is needed
is enormous. You need to start to close the gap.

November 14, 2006

CHAOS AS A COMMON PLACE - blog from REDSTER

CHAOS AS A COMMON PLACE

Greenhope reminded us last Wednesday about the drought in Australia, which has resulted in, among other things, a dramatic scarcity of water and "heaps of dangerous snakes coming out looking for food." It could all be quite mesmerizing, if the chaos hammering the planet wasn't so deadly. Still. The loam of thought is a little more fertile.

The truth is, when we change the jurisdictions of certainty, we are also altering the soil of our minds. What manner of stories can arise from the excursion of desperate serpents on increasingly arid land south of our world?

Everything is changing. Without concerted, urgent action, in as little as twenty five years, the ice caps of Africa's two highest peaks are expected to vanish. On this continent, loss is so final, so vivid. The other day, Richard from Kenya told me about the rapidly desiccating Lake Nakuru, one of the biggest fresh water basins in the country, and the evaporation of the great River Mau which resulted in the mass death of flamingos.

In this age of calamities, the deluge becomes commonplace while extremes of heat and monsoon become regular visitors to the hearth. Reference to all things may change. Even pining. "Announcement during a storm," goes the title of John Iremil E. Teodoro's poem.

"The jalousies are shaking
I imagine that when they shatter
The shards will be as sharp
As my pining for you
Which is wounding the skin
Of my jealousies."

Excerpt from "Panawagan habang bumabagyo," John Iremil E. Teodoro, What the water said: Alon Poems (University of San Agustin, Manila: 2004). Translation by Redster.

Joining a Demo in Nairobi and meeting the president of the Conference!

demo10.jpg

After a few more quiet days, SolarGen has been very busy the last few days, and is also getting ready preparing the activities for the high- level segment next week, that is when all the ministers arrive.

On Friday 2 reps from SolarGen, one other student and me were able to have a meeting with the president of the Cop. In the meeting the youth was able to express their concerns about the impact of climate change on their future and was also asking for the youth to get more recognition in the political process. We were promised a slot in the plenary for the youth and also we heard later that the president declared in an other meeting later that day, he was very inspired by the meeting he had with the youth. Our SG member from Switzerland handed him over a GP t-shirt with Time is Running Out, which he gave a prominent space in his office. And, he is also wearing out Mission Possible: Save the Climate lanyard!

On Saturday SG joined the local demo, which was very energetic. It is hard to guess how many people attended, but estimates range from 1000-8000. With African SG scarfs and banners, SG made it on 2 national TV stations...

Today SG visited a local Youth Solar project in one of the slums of Nairobi. Young people there are making small solar panels, which they sell, and the profit is reinvested in youth projects on various issues. It was a very inspiring group of young people and left us with a deep impression and lot's of food for thought...

Also, the Climate Kiosk Solar Gen presentation (by Jake and Laura) can now be viewed here:
rtsp://webcast.un.org/conferences/unfccc/2006//cck/unfccc061107-se- cck_solar.rm
Have a look!

More updates after the other activities!
Agnes

Steve's blog

Hi!
just to let you know what Steve Sawyer, our head of the Greenpeace delegation is up to, I'd like to share one of his updates with you!

Dear folks,

After a difficult all around start in logistical terms, and the inevitable delays, the COP seems to be off to a pretty positive start. None of the rumored 'poison pills' in the opening plenaries appeared, and the COP/MOP agenda went through quite quickly. The only sour note of the day was at the end of the day when Australia made a big stink insisting the first SBSTA session end precisely at 6 o'clock (the 'new rules') prior to the initial discussion on deforestation. Most countires, including the Africans were quite pissed off with them...

As is usually the case, most of the first day was for show: speeches by politicians, press conferences and the posturing. The Kenyan minister's opening speech was excellent and moving...he's a new minister and nobody knows much about him, but he's the same one who came out to meet the Swiss Solar Gen at the pre-COP ministerial in September in Zurich.

The Ad Hoc Working group on future commitments gets under way in earnest tomorrow morning, which will no doubt throw up the first sparks.

There appears to be positive movement on the resolution fo the dispute on the Adaptation Fund, although it's too early to say that it will in fact be resolved here.

The Big Issue, the Article 9 review, hasn't really come into play yet and Article 9 won't until later in the week...

There are a surprisingly large number of press here...

Steve

1st Day in COP/MOP as SolarGen member!

cimg0153.jpg


It is my first time for attending the COP12 and COP/MOP2. Waked up about 5 o’clock in the morning and cannot fell asleep again, maybe I was too excited or maybe just not adapted to the time difference.
It is also my first time to be aboard. Everything is new and wonderful. I felt a little lost when I was in the morning briefing, but soon I learned how to do it as a volunteer in today’s photo activity. Golam, Laura and me made a prop with Mission Possible: Save the Climate Theme. We cut a hole on the paper, so the Delegates can put in their own head behind the prop, instead the head of the man or the woman on the paper. When this was done, we were looking for the delegates of Parties all over the meeting place, invited them to take pictures and printed all their pictures and stick them on the cardboard. Besides, Ann and me had a short meeting with Wangari Maahai, the lady who won the Nobel Peace Prize, we are waiting outside the her office, we were waiting and waiting and waiting and finally we got a chance to meet her after a lots of interviews of her. We gave our Solar Generation’s lanyard to her, and explained our work and hope. She is kind to us and interested in our work too.
I am really lucky to be here and I like what I am doing here. Although we are doing small things, we are trying our best to change people’s mind to promote renewable energy, for a better future of youth.

November 13, 2006

Saturday 11th. Demonstration Day at Uhuru park

I got a problem in waking up because I had had a long night after the party at Africa unleashed. It rained heavily in the morning when it stopped we had to move to Uhuru park, where we were to meet others who are concerned about a cleaner environment especially on climate change.

On reaching the park, we where disappointed because we did not find anyone. To make matters worse, the youth organizers were still in bed when we called to ask where they were. That wasn’t funny.
We joined other campaigners for a clean environment who had also taken to the streets of Nairobi to put pressure on governments to act urgently on global warming. This was fun!

We were dressed in Solar Generation T-shirts, had our banner written on Greenpeace and had turbans on our heads: this made us “stand out of the crowd”.
The most interesting part came when we had to sing a song which goes like this:
“ OOOOps it’s hot in here! There’s too much carbon in the atmosphere! Take action, take action and get some satisfaction!”
Even the school going children had to learn it and join us.

Different campaigners had different banners written on something, this included: “Stop Climate Injustice”; “Stop Climate Chaos”. The most funny one was the one that had Bush’s picture. It said that he is WANTED FOR CRIMES AGAINST THE PLANET.

Speeches were given by different people all talking about environment. Poems were said by school children and songs sung. This really interested me because the children get to have a touch with the environment. They get to know that things like deforestation is a bad practice which could lead to the alteration of the environment.

By the end of this, we were all exhausted and hungry, we had to move a long distance looking for where to eat, at one time I lost hope thinking we would never get there. But I was wrong!

We went to Masai market where people had to buy things. I did not like it because it was too hot and got a problem because of language barrier.

We walked back to our hotel, we had a long way to go… At one time I thought to get a “matatu” taxi but another thought told me it was unenvironmental friendly: so I stopped thinking about it and had to increase my speed!

In the evening I had nothing to do so I switched on the television and …SURPRISE: the demo was broadcasted in the news, and I saw our group! At the end of it all, the reporter said she hopped that delegates make good decision in the remaining days of the conference.

Cathy

November 9, 2006

Getting Down! To business...

I remember reading "The Big Book of Peace" when I was little. It was a beautful childrens book full of short stories and poems by different authors. In one of the stories a demonstration gets cancelled because of rain and the people take cover in a tunnel with their signs. Turns out this is the same tunnel that the politicians use to walk to work - and as they stand there, soaked, the politicians are moved to vote for peace. This morning a dozen youth from Africa, Europe and North America held up signs in the front hall of the conference center.

The signs said, “Remember you have a son.”or “Remember you have a daughter” and were written in 6 different languages. The youth stood on the side of the hallways as the delegates streamed in for the start of the negotiations. It felt great to see such a simple idea hit home hard with the delegates. I hope this sits on their concience when they decide on the future we'll inherit!

November 8, 2006

The Climate Kiosk

cop12_cck_2.jpg

Hi all,
Just a short update from a still very rainy Nairobi (can not seem to escape the Dutch autumn!). Hopefully next year's conference is in Bali ;-)
The SolarGen students have set up their (already very popular!) exhibition stand that is well attended and gives them an excellent opportunity to have informal talks with all the delegates that come by. Of course the delegates are attracted by our lanyards, this year carrying our message: Mission Possible: Save the Climate. It is already becoming a collectors item.
Today the Solar Gen and the African youth had a chance to present their work at the climate change Kiosk, an initiative set up by the UNFCCC to get people engaged in the conference through the web. They gave a great presentation. The whole presentations is podcasted on their website so YOU can also look at it!
The web address is: http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_12/climate_talk_series/items/3803.php
the presentation is already posted and the podcast will be uploaded later this week....

More later!

Agnes

November 7, 2006

Update at 1:47!

this morning begn almost as last morning... cloudy and cool weather. people seem to be freezing but for some quaint reason i'm not quite that cold. anyways lots of things are happening today... some of the side events are really interesting and we've kind of split up so we can atten whatever we feel like... although now Laettitia, Agnes and Clem have ended up manning our stand... Also our lanyards are only getting more and more popular with entire television crews asking for them! some very awesome meetings are happening and all the greenpeace caimpaigners here are very happy because we seem to be very popular around here... sorry about the really complex sentence structure

November 6, 2006

At the end of day 1

hey people,
this is the end of day1 at the cop12 and finally i've time to write up this entry!!!
anyways we've been working quite hard for some time now (some people more than me 'coz i've mostly been sleeping till late!!). But kudos to agnes, laetitia and bunch for organising this whole thing so coolly... our lanyards(things which we use to hang ID's and stuff around our necks!) probably have been the largest hit of this event, with hundreds of them flying off in all directions!!! literally everyone here has them and it's good to see the message all over. MISSION POSSIBLE: SAVE THE PLANET! good bye for now as i'm running to the youth meeting... keep the flag flying high!!!

First Day at the UN Climate Change Conference

Hi there

After the launching of the African Youth Initiative On Climate Change yesterday we started today to our next challenge: to promote our requests at the climate conference. We started early in the morning, and after only a few hours of sleep I was very tired, but also excited. First we had to get our badges to get access to the area, then we arranged our stand. We distribued lanyards to all the people passing at our stand and asked them, to agree with our message (mission possible: save the climate) and to replace the UNFCCC lanyard with ours. Most of people did, yeah.
At the opening event I met some delegates from Switzerland. They ensured me that they are going to save the climate and our world, I think I will have to check this out and go talking to them again. We will see if they really do or whether they need to be pushed a bit...

Greetings from Nairobi
Annina

November 5, 2006

New website!!

Hi Everybody!
We just launched the new SolarGen website and I am very excited about it! I hope you like it! I am at the moment in Nairobi to get ready for the most important climate change meeting of the year, offically called the COP12MOP2, believe me you do not want to know what the accronym stands for :-) Things here are heating up! I just returned from the Conference of Youth summit, the first African youth summit on climate change ever, which Greenpeace has helped funding and organising under the SolarGeneration project. Spending three days surrounded by 90 youth from within African and beyond has been an amazing and inspiring experience! Laura already wrote about it in her blog... very exciting. Ok, guess it's time to go now as I have about 5 hours ahead before I have to get up to get registered for the conference...
Greetings from Nairobi
Agnes

AYICC Launch !!

After only 3 days of meetings (3-5 of november 2006), something really great happened : the AYICC has been launched !!

The African Youth Initiative on Climate Change has been lauched officially today.
A hundred of young people, from all over the world, but mainly from African countries, spent 3 whole days to prepare this. We were organized in several working groups, each of them dealing with a different topic: the structure of the network, the official declaration, the launch, etc.

I felt the excitement in their voices during the presentation, they were so proud of how they achieved it! They were journalists, a woman from the government, artists and others NGO’s!

A whole continent is being mobilized by its young population.
They are numerous, they are motivated and they have supporters.
They feel directly concerned by the issue, they already set up projects in their countries and they want to unite their strength.
They are fed up of waiting for their governments involvement, they want to set the example of a common and concrete union.
They are not about to stop here, they are giving the first step of this COP MOP!!

It didn’t even began and this huge thing is happening.

Tomorrow, when the delegates will heard of it (if they haven’t seen yet the TV show on KBC Channel 1 explaining all this!) they will know that they can’t make smaller commitments than those youngs! (cf. picture) We saw it at the news while we were celebrating it in a kenyan restaurant!

To thank us, the African students gave to the 30% of non African young, who also contribute to the creation of this network, an “official” certificate! I admit that I was very sensible to this particular attention…

As Solar Generation we will help them in the concrete establishment of their network, to be efficient quickly!

There will be 2 others launches this week: the 7th (direct live on the Conference website website, http://unfccc.int/meetings/cop_12/webcast/items/3882.php) and the 16th.