China’s fragile nuclear ambitions
It seems nuclear business is booming in China right now. The country is looking to quadruple its nuclear power capacity in the next ten years. The Japan Steel Works manufacturer of reactor components has ‘more than doubled its forecast for China’s nuclear plant construction’.
The relationship between China and the US is ‘evolving to include sharing expertise in nuclear-energy technology’ with David Sandalow, the US Department of Energy’s assistant secretary for policy and international affairs, saying ‘nuclear is going to be more of a focus’ in future negotiations between the two countries.
Chinese companies are also eyeing majority stakes in uranium mining projects in Australia, one of the world’s biggest uranium producers in the world.
However, as always with these predictions, projections, pipe dreams (or whatever you want to call them) it’s worth looking beyond the hype. How, for example, does China’s reliance on foreign technology and uranium feed into nuclear power’s supporters’ claims that it offers energy security?
The manufacturing of large reactor components still presents a serious roadblock to a large and fast expansion of the so-called nuclear ‘renaissance’, not just in China but across the world. Factories able to produce the parts are few and already have significant order backlogs. Extra production capacity is promised but would it be enough to satisfy the demand the nuclear industry tells us to expect?
Then there is the question of skills. We can apparently expect ‘$1 trillion worth of contracts for reactors worldwide in the coming decade’. Where is all the expertise and the labour force going to come from fulfil those contracts? Before building more nuclear reactors, the industry might think about building some more training schools and fast.
This rush will inevitably lead to shortages - of resources, manpower and expertise. These shortages could lead to dangers. As Li Ganjie, director of National Nuclear Safety Administration, told the International Ministerial Conference on Nuclear Energy…
At the current stage, if we are not fully aware of the sector's over-rapid expansions, it will threaten construction quality and operation safety of nuclear power plants…
Look at the problems they’ve had at Olkiluoto in Finland where the construction of the OL3 EPR reactor had been plagued with problems with construction quality and safety procedures. And this at a time when the nuclear industry is expanding not-at-all and OL3 is supposedly a fully-resourced flagship project.
That being the case, what can we expect if all these plans for expansion reach their construction phases? Increased competition for resources, expertise stretched thin, corners cut and safety compromised. The vision of a nuclear future suddenly doesn’t look so great. The likes of China’s ambitions start to look less like firm plans and more like fantasies.
