Confidence is an important concept. It allows our society to function: business to make deals, people to plan their future, to interact and build relations. Once confidence in something or someone is blown, those things do not work anymore, and eroded confidence is worthless.
Now the collapse of US plan for final repository of spent nuclear fuel brought a classic example of what is behind word "confidence" when the nuclear industry uses it.
The legislation in United States adopted in early days has more common sense and responsible attitude than one can meet today in most countries on nuclear matters. It established a "waste confidence rule" that requires the National Regulatory Comission to evaluate the nation's ability to safely dispose of nuclear waste; only if the Commission's finding of confidence is positive, the agency is allowed to license new reactors and to renew the licenses of existing ones. Makes sense, huh?
The confidence, based on which more than hundred US reactors were licensed to operate, was derived from a project of deep underground repository, located in a dry desert at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. When the works on the final storage in Yucca Mountain started in 1983, all institutions were confident that it will start receiving spent fuel in 1997. However, after 10 billion dollars spent, after many original safety criteria were weakened to accommodate complicated realities discovered as research advanced, after severe complications and massive budget increase (it rose from 57 to 96 billion dollars only in past eight years), the project is finally dead. Obama's administration decided to cease further works and look for some other option. As Platts, an industrial press, reported:
US Nuclear Regulatory Commission's Chairman Dale Klein said March 18 that his agency does not expect the federal government’s decades-old plan to store commercial spent nuclear fuel at Yucca Mountain, Nevada will move forward. Testifying before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Klein was responding to a question from Republican Senator John McCain of Arizona. "Are you operating under the assumption that Yucca Mountain will become a reality?", McCain twice pressed Klein. "No," Klein said, later adding: "We are not counting on Yucca Mountain being successful."
Under existing waste confidence rule, the Commission said it was confident that a repository would be operational by the end of 2025. That confidence is clearly gone now. One would logically expect that as there is no confidence not even any kind of plan how to handle the waste, no new reactors can be given permission to operate. If that logic applied we would not have to deal with the nuclear industry. So once again, at the moment the industry finds itself not able to follow its own rules, it simply changes the rules. The report also said that:
The revised rule being developed does not contain a specific date by which the commission is confident a repository would be available. But it expresses confidence all spent fuel would be removed from a reactor site within 60 years after the reactorĺs operating license expires.
Read that carefully. The industry kept constantly failing to predict what will happen in 15 years. It is not even able to predict things in the order of years – see the complications and expanding budget of EPR reactors in France and Finland.
Now it says that if there is a problem, there is no need to worry because they are confident what will happen and how the world will look like 60 years after 60 years of reactors’ operation – that is 120 years into the future!
We can be confident that they got it right this time. Or can’t we?
(This is a guest post by Jan Beranek; nuclear campaigner for Greenpeace International)